04832ntm a22005177i 4500 000114726 CZ-PrVSE 20220319150057.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 220319s2022 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Gevorgyan, Kristine ISIS:50435 dis A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Implications of Aging Population on Macroeconomic Variables eng A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of the Implications of Aging Population on Macroeconomic Variables / Kristine Gevorgyan 2022 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Karel Brůna Disertační práce (Ph.D.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta financí a účetnictví, 2022 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2022 The dissertation thesis is a collection of three academic articles on the topic of aging population and its effect on certain macroeconomic variables. It explains theoretically and empirically the relationship between demographics and house prices, real interest rate, and current account balance. The combined evidence of the research shows that demographic shifts have a significant impact on these variables. The goal of the dissertation thesis is to provide a unied framework for understanding and analyzing the role of demographics, and especially aging population on some key macroeconomic variables. At first, the dissertation looks at house price movements due to demographic shifts. Naturally, the dissertation next focuses on two closely related subjects, the real interest rates and the current account imbalance. The first paper tests the idea that major demographic shifts can aeffect house prices. It first builds an overlapping generation model and analytically solves for the equilibrium price of the asset. The model predicts that economies with a higher fraction of old people in the overall population have lower house prices. It then empirically tests this hypothesis using data on house prices and demographic variables from the OECD. The main finding is that if population growth increases by one percentage point house price growth increases by 1.4 percentage points. The second paper asks if demographic changes affect the real interest rates? It shows both theoretically and empirically that an increase in the population growth raises the real interest rate. It solves analytically for the equilibrium real interest rate using a three-period overlapping generation model. The model confirms that when an economy is experiencing a higher share of younger people, the real interest rate increases. The paper empirically tests this hypothesis using cross-country regressions with data on the real interest rates and demographic variables from the OECD. It finds that one percentage point increase in a country's population growth increases the real interest rate by 0.55 percentage points. Finally, the final paper in the thesis shows that international current account imbalances occur to a large degree because of major demographic shifts. It first builds a small open economy model with investment and studies the current account response to a demographic change. According to the model, an economy with a higher population growth demands more funds from world capital markets and experiences a current account decit. Data on current account balances and demographics from the OECD confirm the model's hypothesis.If population growth increases by one percentage point the current account as a fraction of gross domestic product decreases by 0.7 percentage points. Způsob přístupu: Internet finance [obor disert. práce] disertace fd132024 czenas dissertations eczenas Aging Population Current Account Balance House Prices Real Interest Rate Brůna, Karel, 1973- mzk2009543943 ths Smutka, Luboš ISIS:67797 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta financí a účetnictví kn20010709398 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/79191/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/79191 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/79191/posudek/oponent/73196 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/79191/posudek/oponent/73197 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/79191/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse79191 220308 79191