03243ntm a22005057a 4500 000297192 CZ-PrVSE 20150620165001.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 150620s2015 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 Bon, Andrew ISIS:102958 dis Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles eng Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles [elektronický zdroj] / Andrew Bon 2015 ?? s. : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Martin Janíčko Bakalářská práce (Bc.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Národohospodářská fakulta, 2015 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2015 This thesis focuses mainly on analysing leading indicators of business cycles within the USA since the 1960s until the present, while providing theoretical background to the coincident and lagging indicators. United States is a country with incredibly rich amounts of data, which enable a thorough analysis of individual variables. First part is dedicated to different theories that explain the behaviour of cyclical fluctuations, such as a monetarist, Keynesian, or real business cycle approaches are included, followed by defining individual cyclical indicators with the provision of examples. Second part consists of actual analysis starting with dating post-war cycles and real GDP development. Three leading indicators are then analysed and evaluated, specifically the amounts of building permits issued, spread between a 10-year Treasury constant maturity bill and Federal funds rate and finally the unemployment insurance claims. Evaluation is based on individual success rates obtained from historical data. The third and final chapter attempts to forecast the economic outlook of the current business cycle using obtained data from the previous chapter. Conclusion provides an overall summary of individual parts along with pointing out the main findings. Způsob přístupu: Internet economics [obor bakal. práce] bakalářské práce fd132403 czenas bachelor's theses eczenas Economic fluctuations Business cycle Leading Indicators Forecast recessions Janíčko, Martin, 1983- mzk2009521993 ths Prokop, Jaromír ISIS:118290 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Národohospodářská fakulta kn20010709401 https://isis.vse.cz/zp/51943/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://isis.vse.cz/zp/51943 Hlavní práce https://isis.vse.cz/zp/51943/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://isis.vse.cz/zp/51943/posudek/oponent/42874 Oponentura https://isis.vse.cz/zp/51943/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse51943 150616 51943