03672ntm a22005177i 4500 000568407 CZ-PrVSE 20190720083859.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 190720s2019 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Šilhart, Marek ISIS:125830 dis Analýza měnové politiky a vpřed hledící Taylorovo pravidlo eng Monetary Policy Analysis and Forward-Looking Taylor Rule / Marek Šilhart 2019 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Andrea Čížků Bakalářská práce (Bc.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky, 2019 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2019 The objective of this thesis is to report the estimation of the forward-looking Taylor rule for the European central bank (ECB) from the time of its establishment in 1999 to the time of Expanded Asset Purchase Programme, launched at the beginning of 2015, and use it for monetary policy analysis. The estimation is performed by the generalized method of moments. The baseline model is formulated and the robustness to changes in horizons of the inflation and output gap forecasts and changes of instrumental set is performed. As the last step additional regressors are added to the baseline model. According to the estimation of the baseline, the ECB changes nominal interest rate in reaction to both the expected inflation and the output gap deviations. The estimation of the baseline model with interest rate inertia assumption which seems to be more robust than the second one without interest rate inertia assumption, suggests that the ECB reacts to changes in the expected inflation by increasing the nominal interest rate sufficiently enough for the real rate to be increased as well. With interest rate inertia assumption the estimated inflation target, officially defined as “below but close to 2 %“, is 1.38 % for inflation measured by HICP and 1.85 % when a proxy of core HICP is used to measure the inflation. The deviation of the actual path of the interest rate from the interest rate path resulting from the Taylor rule without the smoothing term suggests, that the launch of the Expanded Asset Purchase Programme in 2015 was rather a discretionary reaction of the central bank. Způsob přístupu: Internet matematické metody v ekonomii [obor bakal. práce] bakalářské práce fd132403 czenas bachelor's theses eczenas European central bank forward-looking Taylor rule monetary policy generalized method of moments Čížků, Andrea ISIS:2357 ths Holý, Vladimír ISIS:116093 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky kn20010709399 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/67038/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/67038 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/67038/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://insis.vse.cz/zp/67038/posudek/oponent/61616 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/67038/priloha/18581 Přiloha k práci https://insis.vse.cz/zp/67038/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse67038 190618 67038