03700ntm a22005177i 4500 000685261 CZ-PrVSE 20210619205335.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 210619s2021 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Tsutskov, Konstantin ISIS:140174 dis Google Trends as an advanced way of indexing consumer sentiment and predicting private consumption eng Google Trends as an advanced way of indexing consumer sentiment and predicting private consumption / Konstantin Tsutskov 2021 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Helena Chytilová Bakalářská práce (Bc.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Národohospodářská fakulta, 2021 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2021 This thesis investigates the potential high-frequent alternative to survey-based consumer sentiment indices in the US. The high-frequent indicators are timely information and a prerequisite for sound policymaking, especially during turbulent periods in economic activity. A description of how US GDP, private consumption expenditure, and consumer sentiment are connected is discussed, alongside comparing of currently used indices of consumer sentiment, their drawbacks, and already created alternatives based on web search data. The primary dataset used for the analysis is the data from Google Trends, reflecting the relative popularity of web searches in the US. The selection of relevant search categories and methodology of constructing consumer sentiment index is inspired by Della Penna and Huang (2010). The autoregressive model of private consumption expenditure is employed to compare the predictive power of the synthesized index. The forecasting performance is assessed by comparison to the commonly used survey-based indicator – the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The main value-added of this thesis is the addition of factors reflecting the public concern about news that was not utilized in any of the previous research. The results show that the index based on web search data is a significant predictor of one-month ahead variations of private consumption expenditure; however, its performance compared to the survey-based index is questionable. The integrated news category is shown to be a valuable contributor in predicting the swings in private consumption expenditure. Způsob přístupu: Internet economics [obor bakal. práce] bakalářské práce fd132403 czenas bachelor's theses eczenas private consumption expenditure consumer sentiment indicator consumer confidence google trends time series Chytilová, Helena ntk2018979754 ths Lichard, Tomáš jo2013790928 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Národohospodářská fakulta kn20010709401 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/76781/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/76781 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/76781/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://insis.vse.cz/zp/76781/posudek/oponent/71520 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/76781/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse76781 210616 76781