03050ntm a22005057i 4500 000714088 CZ-PrVSE 20240608092444.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 240608s2024 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Šumníková, Alžběta ISIS:149304 dis Modely založené na skóre pro analýzu teploty vzduchu eng Score-Driven Models for Air Temperature Analysis / Alžběta Šumníková 2024 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Petra Tomanová Diplomová práce (Ing.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky, 2024 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2024 This thesis examines historical temperature trends using the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models, with particular emphasis on the former because of its ability to analyze the time-varying nature of characteristics. This work not only tracks average temperatures, but also looks at maximum and minimum values, revealing an upward trend across all metrics, most notably after the year 1950. While variability changes in monthly data were not consistently evident, specific subsets like January averages and winter minimums displayed decreases in variability patterns. The SARIMA model showed superior performance in monthly data analysis, and its forecasts for 2063 predict significant temperature rises, thus affirming the increasing impact of climate change. GAS was chosen for forecasting purposes based on annual data and predicted higher temperature increases for winter than for summer months. These insights improve understanding of temperature dynamics and may assist in further research on climate modeling. Způsob přístupu: Internet ekonometrie a operační výzkum [obor dipl. práce] diplomové práce fd132022 czenas master's theses eczenas Score-driven models SARIMA model Air Temperature Analysis GAS model Tomanová, Petra ISIS:85567 ths Veverka, Lukáš ISIS:118820 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky kn20010709399 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86267/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86267 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86267/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86267/posudek/oponent/82248 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86267/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse86267 240607 86267