02893ntm a22004937i 4500 000722068 CZ-PrVSE 20250614131007.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 250614s2025 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Chen, Po-Chung ISIS:168467 dis Relationship Between the Business Cycle Indicator and Taiwan Stock Market Performance eng Relationship Between the Business Cycle Indicator and Taiwan Stock Market Performance / Po-Chung Chen 2025 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Karel Brůna Diplomová práce (Ing.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta financí a účetnictví, 2025 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2025 This study examines the usefulness of using Taiwan's Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) to make investment decisions in the 0050 ETF, which is a proxy for the TAIEX. It examines the link between BCI and the TAIEX monthly average growth rate by employing the ARDL model and Granger causality tests. However, the results show that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship and bidirectional short-run causality with a relatively small impact magnitude. To enrich the econometric analysis, the study compares the investment performance of five strategies: Lump-Sum, Dollar-Cost Averaging, BCI-based, RSI, and MACD using R simulations. Among these, the BCI-based strategy shows better long-term risk-adjusted performance. These results indicate that although BCI may not have strong predictive power in the short run, it can still improve long-term investment timing when incorporated into strategy design. Způsob přístupu: Internet finance and accounting [obor dipl. práce] diplomové práce fd132022 czenas master's theses eczenas ARDL Business Cycle Indicator Taiwan Stock Market Brůna, Karel, 1973- mzk2009543943 ths Šímová, Kateřina ISIS:101153 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta financí a účetnictví kn20010709398 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86464/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86464 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86464/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86464/posudek/oponent/85915 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/86464/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse86464 250612 86464