03424ntm a22005057i 4500 000725205 CZ-PrVSE 20250824103944.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 250824s2025 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Vlassova, Polina ISIS:180119 dis Quantifying influence of pandemic, migration, fertility decline on population dynamics : sensitivity analysis approach eng Quantifying influence of pandemic, migration, fertility decline on population dynamics : sensitivity analysis approach Polina Vlassova 2025 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Martina Miskolczi Diplomová práce (Ing.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky, 2025 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2025 Given thesis examines behavior of Germany’s population in response to changes in three key demographic variables: mortality, fertility, and migration. The analysis is conducted through six distinct scenarios, each involving adjustments to one of these parameters. Using a cohort-component projection model, the study evaluates population behavior patterns, including variations in age and gender structure, over the period from 2023 to 2050. The analysis employs Python-based modelling techniques to simulate demographic dynamics. Results indicate that sudden, minor mortality shocks, such as pandemics, generate short-term demographic pressures, followed by a rebalancing in the Total Dependency Ratio. Migration contributes significantly to population stability by combatting natural decline and possesses producing effects comparable to those of fertility. However, unlike fertility, which has a gradual and cumulative influence, changes in migration cause an immediate demographic effect. Sensitivity analysis evaluates the responsiveness of the Total Dependency Ratio and quantifies changes in projected population to uncover underlying behavioral patterns. These findings provide valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to address demographic challenges and develop an integrated strategy to ensure a sustainable population structure in Germany. Způsob přístupu: Internet data analysis and modeling [obor dipl. práce] diplomové práce fd132022 czenas master's theses eczenas Population projection sensitivity analysis Germany migration Miskolczi, Martina ISIS:23031 ths Hon, Filip ola20211110060 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky kn20010709399 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90102/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90102 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90102/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90102/posudek/oponent/88149 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90102/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse90102 250821 90102