03725ntm a22005177i 4500 000725206 CZ-PrVSE 20250824103944.0 m d cr n|||||||||| 250824s2025 xr fsbm 000 0 eng d NEZPRACOVANÝ IMPORT ABA006 cze ABA006 ABA006 rda Novytskyi, Volodymyr ISIS:157699 dis Projection of Japan’s population, 2020–2050 eng Projection of Japan's Population 2022-2052 / Volodymyr Novytskyi 2025 ?? stran : digital, PDF soubor Vedoucí práce: Martina Miskolczi Diplomová práce (Ing.)—Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky, 2025 Obsahuje bibliografii Textový (vysokoškolská kvalifikační práce) Rok obhajoby 2025 This thesis presents a comprehensive projection of Japan’s population from 2020 to 2050, focusing on the country’s well-documented demographic transformation: rapid population aging, persistent low fertility, and sustained population decline. Employing the cohort-component method, the analysis integrates dynamic assumptions for fertility and mortality alongside a fixed migration scenario, drawing on the most recent data from Japan’s national statistical sources and international demographic databases. Future total fertility rate (TFR) projections are developed using ARIMA time series and Bayesian hierarchical models. The study finds that Japan’s population is set to decline sharply—from approximately 126 million in 2020 to just above 102 million by 2050—while the proportion of elderly (65+) will surpass 35%. The analysis confirms the robustness of the applied methodology, as results closely track official projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS). Shifts in the age structure will intensify demographic pressures on the workforce and welfare systems, highlighting Japan’s position as a leading example of challenges that other developed societies will soon face. Beyond population numbers, the thesis discusses the broader implications of demographic change for policy and society. It concludes that mitigating the effects of population decline and aging will require integrated responses across family policy, labor markets, migration, and social support for the elderly. The findings offer evidence-based insights relevant to policymakers and researchers and contribute to ongoing debates on demographic sustainability in aging societies. Způsob přístupu: Internet data analysis and modeling [obor dipl. práce] diplomové práce fd132022 czenas master's theses eczenas Japan Population projection Cohort-component method Fertility Miskolczi, Martina ISIS:23031 ths Hon, Filip ola20211110060 opn Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze. Fakulta informatiky a statistiky kn20010709399 dgg https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90141/podrobnosti VŠKP v InSIS https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90141 Hlavní práce https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90141/posudek/vedouci Hodnocení vedoucího https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90141/posudek/oponent/88148 Oponentura https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90141/priloha/32323 Přiloha k práci https://insis.vse.cz/zp/90141/podrobnosti dc:identifier NEPOSILAT VSKP vse90141 250821 90141